CRIMINAL JUSTICE ECONOMICS

Criminal Justice Economics

The Economics of Crime, Punishment, and Prevention

The Numbers

Comparison: US has 4% of world population, 25% of world's prisoners

Root Causes of Crime

Economic

Desperation: Survival crimes when safety net fails

Social

Trauma: Childhood abuse/neglect predicts adult criminality

Systemic

Cycle: Incarceration destroys families, creating next generation's criminals

Why Punishment Doesn't Work

Deterrence myth: Criminals don't calculate—impulsive, desperate, or mentally ill

Cost: $60K/year to make someone worse vs. $10K to help them

What Actually Reduces Crime

Evidence-Based Prevention

Housing: Stable housing reduces recidivism 40%+

International Comparison

Cost: Prevention-focused countries spend less, have less crime

AIP Solution: Upstream Investment

Stability Accounts Address Root Causes

Economic security: Less need for underground economy

Universal Healthcare Includes Mental Health

Trauma-informed: Address root causes, not symptoms

No Income Tax + Opportunity

Reentry: Stability Account helps ex-offenders restart

Projected Outcomes

Comparison: Approach Nordic levels of incarceration over 30 years

Discussion Questions

Is economic determinism of crime accurate, or do cultural factors matter?

How do we handle genuinely dangerous individuals who need incapacitation?

What about victims—does this focus too much on offenders?

How do we transition from punishment system to prevention system?

What's the political path given tough-on-crime constituencies?

Note: Criminal justice is politically charged. AIP approaches through economics (root causes) rather than punishment/mercy debate. Prevention is conservative (saves money, reduces crime) and progressive (addresses inequality). Validators invited to challenge causal claims.