Assumptions - AIP Framework

Core Economic Assumptions

GDP Growth Rate

3.2%

Average annual growth (vs 2.0% baseline)

GRT Evasion Rate

5%

Point-of-sale collection minimizes evasion (vs 15% current income tax gap)

Healthcare Efficiency Gains

15%

Administrative savings from universal coverage

Stability Account Returns

6.88%

Conservative long-term market returns

Structural Stabilization: $25K/birth × 3.6M births = $90B/year steady buying pressure. Mandatory inflows create floor on declines—no panic selling (accounts locked until 65). Norway's $1.4T fund demonstrates this effect: continuous buying during downturns accelerates recovery.

Alliance Expansion

730M

Citizens by Year 30 (from 331M US)

Military Transition

10 years

Gradual shift to hemisphere defense

Sensitivity Analysis

Each assumption has been stress-tested with ±20% variation:

Assumption	Base Case	-20% Scenario	+20% Scenario	Impact
GDP Growth	3.2%	2.56%	3.84%	±$1.2T Year 30 revenue
GRT Evasion	5%	4%	6%	±$300B Year 1 revenue
Healthcare Costs	$3.5T	$2.8T	$4.2T	±$700B annual spending
Alliance Growth	730M	716M	1.07B	±$2T Year 30 GDP
Stability Account Returns	6.88%	5.5%	8.25%	±$400K avg retirement

Key Risks

Political Viability

Risk: Framework requires constitutional amendments and major legislation

Probability: 40-50% with proper execution

Mitigation: Coalition building across political spectrum, phased implementation, state-level pilots

Transition Disruption

Risk: Moving from current tax system to GRT causes economic disruption

Probability: High in Year 1-2

Mitigation: 3-year transition period, grandfather provisions, immediate benefits offset costs

Healthcare Cost Overruns

Risk: Universal coverage costs more than projected

Probability: Moderate (±15% uncertainty)

Mitigation: Phased rollout, cost controls, efficiency gains from preventive care

Implementation Complexity

Risk: GRT collection integration with existing payment systems faces delays

Probability: Moderate

Mitigation: Phased rollout, state-level pilots first, leverage existing Visa/Mastercard/bank infrastructure

International Resistance

Risk: Other nations oppose Alliance formation

Probability: Variable by nation

Mitigation: Voluntary participation, demonstrated benefits, bilateral agreements first

What We're NOT Assuming

The framework does NOT depend on:

AI productivity gains (productivity sharing based on general output, not AI-specific)
Technological breakthroughs (uses existing proven technology)
Perfect political cooperation (designed for adversarial environment)
No opposition (accounts for lobbying and resistance)
Immediate behavior change (phased transition allows adaptation)
Zero corruption (accountability mechanisms enforce compliance)

Critical Dependencies & Failure Points

What has to be true for this to work—and where it could fail

🚨 Political Viability Challenge

1. Crisis Window
2031+ entitlement defaults

→ 2. Political Will
Coalition forms under pressure

→ 3. Policy Change
Constitutional amendments pass

→ 4. GRT Revenue
Funds universal programs

Bootstrap Challenge: Programs build voter support, but you need political will first to create programs.

Must Be True For Success:

Politics

Crisis creates reform window (2031+ Medicare/SS defaults)
Impossible Coalition forms under pressure
Constitutional amendments pass (2/3 + 3/4)
Canada/Mexico agree to Alliance terms
Incumbent industries don't block

Economics

Corporations actually share productivity gains
GRT credits work as intended incentive
Healthcare savings materialize (15%)
Stability Account returns hold (6.88%)
GDP growth sustains at 3.2%

Implementation

GRT collection integrates with existing payment systems
Point-of-sale collection accuracy >95%
Stability Accounts scale to 330M+ users
Transition period manageable (2-3 years)
State-level pilots prove viability first

Probability Assessment

All of this happening exactly as described? Low.
Core economic logic being sound? That's what we're testing.
Some version of this becoming necessary? Increasingly likely as systems strain.

This isn't a prediction—it's a framework to have ready when extraordinary conditions emerge.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS