Transparent about what could go wrong and how we address it. No framework survives contact with reality unchanged—here's how AIP adapts.
If businesses evade GRT at 20% (not 10%), Year 1 revenue drops from $6.1T to $4.9T—a $1.2T shortfall.
At 20% evasion: Revenue $4.9T (vs $6.1T). Delayed but viable—enforcement improves over time as real-time tracking expands.
If healthcare costs $4.0T (not $3.5T), the system faces a $500B annual gap.
At $4.0T healthcare: GRT rises to 13.8%, surplus drops to $2.2T. System remains viable—20+ nations prove single-payer efficiency.
Insurance, pharma, defense contractors, and wealthy donors oppose reforms that eliminate their advantages.
Reducing from $850B to $200B over 10 years could create perceived or real security vulnerabilities.
If markets return 5% real (not 6.88%), age-65 accounts reach $700K instead of $1.89M.
At 5% returns: $700K at 65, $28K/year. Still superior to current Social Security and eliminates retirement poverty.
If partner countries don't join, Alliance benefits ($3T/year by Year 30) don't materialize.
If 2% inflation target impossible, purchasing power erodes over 30 years.
Employers misclassify workers, offshore jobs, or lobby for exemptions to avoid +2.5%/year wage growth mandates.
Amendment XXVIII requires 2/3 Congress + 3/4 states (38 of 50). This high bar ensures only broadly supported changes pass—exactly the consensus AIP needs.
The system is robust to single-point failures. Even if multiple assumptions are wrong simultaneously, AIP remains superior to the current trajectory.
Year 1 GRT: 13.2% → 13.8%
Year 30 surplus: $2.7T → $2.2T
Year 1 revenue: $6.1T → $4.9T
Balance delayed: Year 1 → Year 5
Age 65 account: $1.89M → $700K
Retirement income: $42K → $28K/year
Alliance benefits: $3T → $800B/year
US-only system still works
AIP is designed for real-world messiness. No single failure breaks the system. Even pessimistic scenarios outperform the current trajectory of $180T debt, 47M uninsured, and accelerating inequality.
What happens: Economic friction during changeover → Public backlash → Reform reversed before benefits materialize
Probability: Moderate. Major system changes always create short-term adjustment.
Mitigation: Phased rollout, grandfather existing benefits, clear communication of timeline.
What happens: Can't pass constitutional amendments → Status quo continues → Systems deteriorate
Probability: High. Constitutional amendments require extraordinary consensus—this is what it takes.
Mitigation: Wait for crisis. 2031-2034 Medicare/SS defaults may create window.
What happens: Companies evade GRT → Revenue shortfalls → Program cuts → Coalition breaks
Probability: Moderate. Point-of-sale helps but not perfect.
Mitigation: Algorithmic enforcement, penalties, make compliance cheaper than evasion.
What happens: No 730M market → Reduced corporate incentive → Smaller benefits → Less compelling
Probability: Moderate-High. International cooperation requires sustained effort—but the alternative is fragmentation.
Mitigation: Start US-only, prove model, expansion becomes attractive.
What happens: Returns <6.88%, costs >15% higher → Math doesn't work → Debt/deficits anyway
Probability: Low-Moderate. Historical data supports assumptions.
Mitigation: Conservative estimates, adjustment mechanisms, phase-in slowly.
What happens: Health insurers, tax preparers, defense contractors block reforms
Probability: High. Powerful entrenched interests.
Mitigation: Show workers path to better jobs, phase-in period, overwhelming public support.
Without systemic change, current trajectory leads to:
$180T debt. Healthcare collapse. Climate failure. Democratic erosion.
This is the best of bad options—and possibly the last window for peaceful transformation.
This is a 50-year civilization project, not a 4-year policy proposal.
Every risk above has a mitigation.
Every challenge has been anticipated. Every assumption has sensitivity analysis.
The question isn't whether problems will arise—they will. The question is whether the framework is robust enough to adapt. That's why AIP is designed with feedback loops, adjustment mechanisms, and constitutional constraints that force course correction rather than collapse.
When everyone wins, no one needs to lose.